With consumer sentiment largely stagnant and so-called polycrises occurring with remarkable frequency, Berke Serbetci Hamza, from Core Research, delves into the latest Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index to see what is holding us, and indeed other countries, back.
Irish consumer confidence has remained largely stagnant throughout 2024, with the latest Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index, for October standing at 74.1, only a slight improvement from 71.9 in September. The sentiment index has plateaued, showing minimal growth over the year, despite initial optimism earlier in 2024. This flat trajectory reflects ongoing uncertainties and a lack of significant improvement in consumer outlook, both locally and globally.
The seasonal emotional highs of summer and the holiday spirit have faded, as indicated by the drop in enjoyment levels among Irish consumers. Ireland braces for the chill of winter marked by the arrival of Storm Ashley.
This seasonal transition mirrors a broader trend identified at the 2024 World Economic Forum. Global stability, once taken for granted, is now seen as a dynamic challenge. It signals the onset of an ‘Age of Polycrises’. This new reality demands a deeper understanding of the interconnectedness of global conflicts and local events. The October Consumer Mindset highlights this trend. Despite economic optimism, many Irish citizens feel increased anxiety and sadness due to global conflicts.
Looking at it from the lens of the ‘Age of Polycrises’ we can observe that global and local events interact in ways that make the overall impact greater than the sum of the individual parts. Domestic stability alone is no longer enough to ensure happiness and security in the face of global instability.
Irish citizens are more focused on global tensions, particularly the pager attacks in Israel, than local issues like snap election speculation. Putting aside the political aspects of these events, they have made us feel more fragile by raising questions about the technologies we use every day.
This situation underscores a profound dichotomy. Our dependence on these technologies is so widespread that they are nearly always present in our lives. However, the presence we once relied on now causes us to feel uneasy and uncanny.
This month is not only defined by global conflicts but also by the anticipation of two major elections: the U.S. election in early November and the Irish election, now confirmed to take place before Christmas 2024.
Although the 2025 budgets were as significant as these two elections, the excitement surrounding the 2025 budget among Irish citizens rapidly diminished. The 2025 budget is perceived as employing a “kicking the can down the road” approach, a common tactic in pre-election periods that focuses more on short-term benefits rather than laying the groundwork for major concerns which require both immediate action and long-term reforms.
It appears that this approach, which is marked by “present bias” and temporal discounting in behavioural science—that is, choosing immediate pleasure over long-term solutions—doesn’t resonate for all Irish consumers. It became clear that 2025 budget falls short in addressing the needs of all groups, seemingly perceived as beneficial mostly for families and pensioners and neglecting broader issues like health, housing and cost of living which affects a wider demographic.
As a result, the 2025 budget has done little to ease the prevailing anxiety and sadness, which have only been heightened by global conflicts. These international issues continue to dominate public attention, overshadowing local news. In light of the recent announcement that the Irish elections will be conducted prior to Christmas, we are also eagerly anticipating the release of our upcoming Consumer Mindset report to analyse the impact it will have on Irish consumers.
To read the full report click HERE
