With the excesses and optimism of Christmas and the New Year well behind us, consumer confidence continues to decline as talk of international tariffs and Donald Trump’s policies take their toll, writes Naomi Staff, MD of Core Research.
March 2025 has delivered a sharp jolt to Irish consumer confidence, marking the most significant monthly drop in sentiment since late 2022. The Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index, in partnership with Core Research, fell from 74.8 in February to 67.5 in March—its lowest point since May 2024, and a clear signal that consumers are entering a new phase of concern and reflection.
To put that in context, while March’s figure of 67.5 is striking, it mirrors a similar dip this time last year, when sentiment fell to 69.5. This underlines a broader trend we’ve been tracking for the past 12 months: a sense of stasis and uncertainty.
Some households continue to do well, optimistic about their futures. Others remain stuck—battling with high housing costs and asking hard questions about what lies ahead. Now, as we settle into 2025, those questions are intensifying. The phrase “what might be” is fast becoming the defining mindset of the moment.
The Trump Effect
The drop in confidence comes at a time when international politics, particularly the re-emergence of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, are dominating headlines. These “Trump Tariff Talks” are generating a sense of instability in the economic landscape. The US administration’s tactic of flooding the zone with headlines—flip-flopping on economic decisions, breaking news alerts, and spinning truth — is beginning to weigh on Irish consumers’ view of the future.
Through our Core Cultural Index analysis, which tracks the news stories people say are personally important to them, we’ve found that people who are paying closest attention to the Trump tariff narrative are also more likely to believe that both the Irish economy and their personal financial situation will deteriorate. Roughly one-third of the population say that Trump’s tariff talk is very important to them—and this group is disproportionately concerned about issues such as unemployment and economic downturn.
Where people are getting their information also matters. Those most engaged with the Trump tariff story are more likely to rely on Irish mainstream news sources—TV, print and radio. Within this group, pessimism is notably higher.
However, those who access information via social media or conversations with friends and family are somewhat more detached from the economic implications of tariff threats, either due to apathy or a degree of disconnect.
Meanwhile, those engaging with specialist media, academic commentary, or in-depth podcasts—though a smaller group (about 10–20% of adults in Ireland)—show a more measured response. Their broader economic literacy appears to buffer some of the anxiety created by sensational headlines.
Grounding in Joy and Control
Importantly, this surge in uncertainty has not yet translated into a decline in spending or spending intentions. Consumers remain open to major purchases—whether that’s holidays, household improvements, or housing investments. Instead of retreating, people are recalibrating.
They are responding to macroeconomic anxiety by anchoring themselves in micro-level joy and control. In our Mindset report this month, we explore how Irish consumers are focusing on small, everyday pleasures—time with family, social connection, and personal well-being—as a stabilising force.
We also note a growing appetite for clarity and deeper understanding. There is a real opportunity for Irish media, brands, and institutions to provide not just updates, but meaningful context.
The audience is there, and it’s asking for more than just breaking news—it wants nuance, perspective, and a sense of direction. Podcasts and long-form journalism are beginning to meet that need, explaining the complexities of tariffs, foreign policy, and trade in accessible terms.
From Noise to Insight
At Core Research, we remain committed to tracking these shifting dynamics. Our work will continue to examine not only the headline indicators like the Consumer Sentiment Index, but the deeper cultural and psychological undercurrents shaping how people think, feel, and act in today’s uncertain world.
While Trump’s tariff rhetoric may be the trigger of the moment, our job is to look beyond the noise—to understand how people are making sense of it all and how their responses shape broader consumer behaviour.
This is not a crisis within the polycrisis, but it is a moment of vigilance. As we identified in our PREDICT 2025 report, the key to navigating this year will not be to panic, but to understand. The Irish public is not turning away from complexity—they are looking for tools to process it.
Core Research will continue to be a trusted source in helping the public—and the brands that serve them—understand where sentiment is heading next, and why.
Naomi Staff is Managing Director of Core Research
To read the latest Consumer Mindset report from Core Research, click HERE
